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央行调查:近40%居民预期下季房价上涨 23%有购房意愿

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fdn司马砸光 发表于 2018-6-29 10:02:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式 打印 上一主题 下一主题
央行调查:近40%居民预期下季房价上涨 23%有购房意愿
原标题:央行调查:近40%居民预期下季房价上涨 23%有购房意愿  图片来源:视觉中国  2018年第二季度城镇储户问卷调查报告  2018年第二季度,中国人民银行在全国50个城市进行了2万户城镇储户问卷调查,结果显示:  一、收入感受指数  本季收入感受指数为53.2%,比上季下降2.1个百分点。其中,88.6%的居民认为收入“增加”或“基本不变”,比上季下降0.6个百分点。收入信心指数为53.5%怀化海尔空调维修,比上季回落0.7个百分点。   二、就业感受指数  本季就业感受指数为45%,比上季下降0.9个百分点网站地图。其中,15.5%的居民认为“形势较好,就业容易”,52.2%的居民认为“一般”网站地图,32.3%的居民认为“形势严峻,就业难”或“看不准”。就业预期指数为52.3%,比上季下降1.8个百分点。   三、物价和房价预期  对下季度,物价预期指数为61%,比上季上升1.4个百分点。其中,27.7%的居民预期下季物价将“上升”乐山海尔空调维修收费,53.7%的居民预期“基本不变”,8.1%的居民预期“下降”,10.5%的居民“看不准”襄阳美的空调售后电话。  对下季房价,36.5%的居民预期“上涨”,44.7%的居民预期“基本不变”,8.5%的居民预期“下降”,10.3%的居民“看不准”。   四、消费、储蓄和投资意愿  倾向于“更多消费”的居民占24.7%,与上季基本持平;倾向于“更多储蓄”的居民占43.5%,比上季上升1个百分点;倾向于“更多投资”的居民占31.7%,比上季回落1个百分点。居民偏爱的前三位投资方式依次为平顶山美的空调清洗维修:“银行、证券、保险公司理财产品”、“基金信托产品”和“股票”,选择这三种投资方式的居民占比分别为48.7%、21.9%和18.4%。  被问及未来3个月准备增加支出的项目,按照居民选择比例由高到低排序为:旅游注:本表数值保留一位小数,与同期或与上季相减后的数据与报告有出入的沈阳格力空调清洗维修,主要是由于四舍五入引起的网站地图。数据来源:中国人民银行调查统计司。  编制说明:城镇储户问卷调查是中国人民银行1999年起建立的一项季度调查制度。每季在全国50个(大、中、小)调查城市、400个银行网点各随机抽取50名储户,全国共20000名储户作为调查对象。调查内容包括储户对经济运行的总体判断、储蓄及负债情况、消费情况、储户基本情况等四个方面。城镇储户问卷调查报告中的指数采用扩散指数法进行计算,即计算各选项占比ic,并分别赋予各选项不同的权重qi(赋予“好/增长”选项权重为1,赋予“一般/不变”选项权重为0.5,赋予“差/下降”选项权重为0),将各选项的占比ic乘以相应的权重qi福州海尔空调不制热维修,再相加计算出最终的指数南充美的空调维修。所有指数取值范围在0~100%之间。指数在50%以上,反映该项指标处于向好或扩张状态;低于50%,反映该项指标处于变差或收缩状态。主要指数计算方法简单介绍如下:  1.物价预期指数:反映居民对下季物价判断的扩散指数。该指数的计算方法是,先扣除选择“看不准”的居民数,然后分别计算认为下季物价“上升”与“基本不变”的居民占比,再分别赋予权重1和0.5后求和得出。  2.收入感受指数:反映居民对当期收入的扩散指数。该指数的计算方法是,先分别计算认为本季收入“增加”与“基本不变”的居民占比,再分别赋予权重1和0.5后求和得出。  3.收入信心指数:反映居民对未来收入信心的扩散指数。该指数的计算方法是,先扣除选择“难以预计”的居民数,然后分别计算认为下季收入“增加”与“基本不变”的居民占比,再分别赋予权重1和0.5后求和得出。  4.就业感受指数:反映居民对当前就业情况感受的扩散指数。该指数的计算方法是,先扣除选择“看不准”的居民数,然后分别计算认为本季就业“增加”与“基本不变”的居民占比,再分别赋予权重1和0.5后求和得出。  5.就业预期指数:反映居民对未来就业预期的扩散指数。该指数的计算方法是,先扣除选择“看不准”的居民数,然后分别计算预计下季就业“好”与“一般”的居民占比,再分别赋予权重1和0.5后求和得出。  













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